Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) are predicted to increase by 25.6% between 2025 and 2030,according to data recently revealed by IBA, aviation market intelligence and advisory company.
IBA’s experts forecast that RPKs will rise from 9.5 trillion in 2025 to 11.9 trillion in 2030 – an expected average annual growth of 4.7%. This follows a new record high in 2024, as RPKs exceeded 9 trillion for the first time, marking a 10.1% increase on pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Global GDP growth is forecast to remain steady at 3.3% throughout 2025 and 2026, with India leading at 6.9%. The US is expected to start at 2.8%, easing steadily to 2.4% for 2025, supported by robust consumer spending driven by a resilient job market and the significant contribution of the services sector. Europe will continue to lag but is showing improvement over 2024.
China’s GDP is predicted to reduce from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 due to its ongoing restructuring efforts, persistently high debt levels, and a stagnant real estate market. Meanwhile, Japan and Argentina, two of the weakest performers in 2024, are expected to rebound, with forecast growth of 1.5% and 3.6% respectively.
The outlook for oil prices is also positive, as fundamentals suggest that supply will outpace demand in the short to medium-term, keeping prices under control. However, geopolitics remain a strong risk.
IBA warned the strengthening US dollar remains a major concern as it could hamper US exports, strain emerging markets, and significantly impact non-US airlines, which rely heavily on the currency for fuel, aircraft, maintenance and lease payments.
The political landscape following the 2024 elections could also lead to greater protectionism, isolationism, and potential trade disputes. Tariffs on Chinese and EU imports may aim to reduce trade deficits and promote domestic manufacturing but could also increase costs and hinder trade. Despite this, US consumer spending and the strong US Dollar are expected to boost trade overall.
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