Although debt-ridden Indian airlines are bleeding, global air-framers Boeing and Airbus Group have raised their outlook on airplane sales in India, with both forecasting more than 1,000 new aircraft by 2032.
While European manufacturer Airbus expects that Indian carriers would require 1,290 new passenger aircraft valued at US$190 billion to meet the burgeoning demand, Boeing projects demand for more than 1,600 new airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at $205 billion.
Of the requirement for 1,290 new aircraft in India, some 73% will be for growth and 27% for replacement. The new passenger aircraft include 913 single aisles like the A320 and A320 Neo family, 322 twin aisles like the A350 XWB and A330, and 56 very large aircraft such as the A380, says Joost van der Heijden, Airbus head of marketing-Asia.
Airbus forecasts that 36% of India’s fleet will be wide-bodies, more than doubling the current level.
“This is a result of increased capacity of international as well domestic routes with larger aircraft like the A330 and A350s,” van der Heijden says.
In passenger traffic term, domestic India is the fastest growing flow increasing at almost 10% per year to 2032. In 2032, India domestic traffic will be the world’s third largest domestic market. In addition, five of the world’s top 20 fastest growing flows, connect India.
“Today one in 20 Indians travel by air and in 2032 this will increase five fold to a quarter of the population taking at least one flight. Along with China, more people will experience the benefits of aviation for the first time in India than anywhere else,” the Airbus executive says.
The company had forecast in 2012 that India would need 1,043 airplanes in the period up to 2030.
Airbus plans to market the A321 and A350 airplanes to Indian carriers.
“We see an interest among Indian carriers for the A321 as it benefits from operational commonality with its fellow A320 family members, providing carriers with tremendous flexibility in matching aircraft to specific route requirements,” he says.
Since all A320 family aircraft share a single type rating – allowing pilots to fly any version of the 320 aircraft after attending only one training course and enabling the same team of mechanics to maintain an aircraft. With only minimal additional training, pilots also can transition quickly from these single-aisle jetliners to Airbus’ larger long-range aircraft quickly thanks to the unique family concept and their exceptional degree of operational commonality, Airbus says.
The Airbus executive says the A321 will be further enhanced in 2015 with the service introduction of its new engine option jetliner versions.
“Incorporating Airbus’ “Sharklet” wing tip devices and two new engine choices, the A320neo Family offers maximum benefit with minimal changes from baseline A319s, A320s and A321s – delivering fuel savings of up to 15%, along with additional range of up to 500 nautical miles/900 km. or 2 tons of extra payload,” he says.
Airbus also feels that A350 is an important aircraft for India as it complements to the wide-bodied aircraft operating in the country. “We are talking to prospective customers,” he adds.
BOEING ALSO UPBEAT
Meanwhile, Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president sales for Asia Pacific at Boeing, says his company projects that passenger airlines in India will rely primarily on single-aisle airplanes such as the Next-Generation 737 and the 737 MAX, a new-engine variant of the market-leading 737, to connect passengers.
“These new 737 aircraft are the ideal and natural choice of Indian carriers, who are hurt by high fuel costs, as these aircraft are 14% more fuel efficient compared with our earlier version of 737s,” Keskar says.
Briefing its 20-year market outlook for the country at India Aviation 2014, Keskar says India’s commercial aviation fleet will grow more than five times in size.
“India’s demographics are highly favorable to the growth of air transportation…The share of India’s large population entering the workforce is growing. India could have the world’s fourth-largest economy if current trends continue helping drive demand for air travel,” he adds.
For long-haul traffic, Boeing forecasts twin-aisle airplanes such as the 747-8 Intercontinental, 777 and the 787 will account for 15% of new airplane deliveries.
“Boeing’s recently launched 787-10 and 777X also will support the demand for fuel-efficient twin-aisle airplanes in India,” Keskar says.
During the next 20 years, Boeing expects India may take deliveries of 1330 single-aisle aircraft worth $132 billion, while 235 twin-aisle aircraft worth $72 billion will be delivered during the period. Demand for regional jets will increase and 35 such aircraft will be delivered to the country at a cost of $1 billion, the forecast says.
“India will continue to have one of the strongest, most vibrant aviation markets in the world over the next two decades,” says Keskar.
“While passenger growth is recovering and we project a healthy aviation industry in the long term, adverse near-term trends of overcapacity, a weak rupee and high fuel prices will affect airline profitability in the near term,” he points out.
Globally, Boeing projects a $4.8 trillion market for 35,280 airplanes over the next 20 years, driven by an increase in deliveries from India, China and other emerging markets.
That forecast represents the traffic growing at 5% annual rate over the next 20 years and the world fleet is expected to double by 2032.
