In parallel with its race to the bomb, Iran is accelerating the development of long range ballistic missiles.
Israeli experts share the understanding that even if Iran has a bomb, there is no danger that it will use it. This is because Teheran knows that the Israeli retaliation is expected to be “massive.”
According to international media, Israel has at least one submarine on station near Iran, armed with nuclear weapons. So while the Iranian nuclear capability will create a nuclear deterrent, the Iranian ballistic missiles program poses a real, imminent threat that Israel is currently safeguarding itself from.
Earlier this month, Iran’s state-affiliated Tehran Times issued a threat to Israel, publishing a map of the country riddled with red markers of potential targets to be hit if Israel takes military action against Iran’s nuclear program. The map, on the front page of the Iranian daily, was printed under the headline, “Just one wrong move.”
The article alongside of the map, said: “An intensification of the Israeli military threats against Iran seems to suggest that the Zionist regime has forgotten that Iran is more than capable of hitting them from anywhere.”
Israel is no stranger to attacks by ballistic missiles. From January 17 to February 23 1991, Iraq launched 42 Scud missiles attacking Israel during the Gulf War. The Scuds carried a warhead weighing 600-800 kgs. The Iraqi attack, aimed at big cities in Israel, was carried out with inaccurate missiles and therefore only caused minor damage and some casualties.
The new advanced Iranian ballistic missiles, however, are accurate and Israeli sources assess that they will first target Israeli air force bases. The map in the Iranian daily was published days after satellite images showed that Iran is preparing the test of what is referred to as a satellite launcher. Israeli experts say that this is another step in the development of Iran’s long-range ballistic missile capability.
On February 2, 2008, Iran became the ninth country with capability to launch satellites when it successfully orbited its first satellite, the “Omid,” using its newly developed “Safir” space launch rocket, an adaptation of the “Shahab 3” military ballistic missile.
According to Dr. Uzi Rubin, a senior Israeli expert on ballistic missiles and former head of Israel’s missile defense organization, the world witnessed the debut of Iran’s first solid-propellant space rocket in 2008. “The development was highly significant,” he adds. “Unlike liquid propellant rockets that need to be fueled before launch, solid propellant rockets are launch-ready at any time.” Rubin says that the first disclosure of the existence of a new space launcher was made by Iran’s Mehr news agency on February 9, 2020 when it announced the completion of the design of a new solid propellant Space Launch Vehicle (SLV).
In an article published on the website of the Jerusalem institute for Strategy and Security, Rubin writes that the new Iranian space rocket launcher, dubbed “Zuljanah,” lifted off from its launch pad into suborbital trajectory from Semnan spaceport on February 2, 2021. No satellite was launched into orbit. According to reports, the rocket reached an altitude of 320 km, signifying a failure to reach earth’s orbit. More likely, no satellite launch was intended. Rather, the first flight of the space launcher was a preliminary suborbital flight test to check out flight characteristics and the launch sequence rather than an audacious leap into a fully-fledged space shot.
The Zuljanah is powered by the largest solid propellant motor made public by Iran. The released video clips show a smooth takeoff from a launch table equipped with a large jet deflector firmly fixed to the launch pad’s surface. The video clip shows the rocket shortly before takeoff, with the launch support tower already reclining out the rocket’s way.
Rubin says in his article that a rocket using two stage propellant units could probably deliver payloads of about 500 kg to ranges of 4000 km. or more – enough to reach all of Europe.
“In other words, the Zuljanah is a candidate precursor for a ready-to-launch, survivable IRBM aimed at the core members of the EU,” Rubin added. “Moreover, the official Iranian release mentioned that the “Zoljanah” could be fired in the future from mobile launchers; a capability more appropriate for a military IRBM than a peaceful civilian space launcher.”
The Israeli expert asserts that the impression is that the Iranian leadership is stretching thin the cover story of its “civilian” space program, in tandem with stretching its compliance with the Nuclear Deal, to accumulate bargaining chips for its forthcoming negotiation over the US return to the nuclear deal.
Using the technology for what the Iranians call “space launchers” to upgrade their ballistic missiles technology ,Iran has an operational arsenal of long-range ballistic missiles. According to Rubin, the Iranians have bought North Korean technology, and based on it, developed the Khorramshar ballistic missile with a range of 2000 km. “This ballistic missile which is 13 meters long and powered by liquid fuel can carry a warhead with a max weight of 2 tons,” he says.
According to the Israeli expert, the Iranians have another long range ballistic missile powered by solid fuel. This missile, the Sejil, has a range of 2000 km and can carry a warhead weighing up to 2000 kg. “The Iranian long range ballistic missiles are a real imminent threat that is being upgraded continuously,” Rubin warned.
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