Enabled by low-cost carriers and a rapidly expanding leisure travel market, European carriers will need 8,705 new airplanes through 2040, according to the 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), Boeing’s long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services.
The CMO also forecasts that Europe’s commercial aviation industry will require more than 405,000 new aviation personnel by 2040, including pilots, technicians and cabin crews
Global and regional air travel markets are recovering largely as projected last year. Demand for air travel within Europe is leading the recovery as health and travel restrictions ease, followed by long-haul travel’s return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.
For short-haul routes, European airlines are expected to further invest in new, higher-capacity single-aisle models that reduce fuel use and emissions. For long-haul fleets, airlines are projected to leverage new-generation widebodies, such as the 787 and 777X, that significantly improve efficiency. By 2040, 90% of Europe’s current fleet will be replaced with more fuel-efficient models, outpacing the global replacement share of 80%, according to the CMO.
“While Europe was significantly impacted during the pandemic, coordinated policies within the region have unlocked significant pent-up demand for air travel, resulting in an accelerating recovery,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president, Commercial Marketing. “Single-aisle airplanes will initially be the main driver in expanding capacity to meet demand in the region. In the long-haul segment, we see tremendous opportunity for carriers to replace older, less efficient aircraft with more versatile twin-engine models that reduce fuel use, CO2 emissions and noise.”
Passenger traffic in Europe is projected to grow by 3.1% annually through to 2040, according to the CMO. Average annual fleet growth will be 2.7%. Demand for 7,100 single-aisle airplanes will be driven by continued growth in the low-cost carrier (LCC) segment that currently accounts for more than 50% of intra-Europe capacity.
Demand for 1,545 new widebodies, including passenger and freighter models, will serve long-haul networks including point-to-point as well as hub-and-spoke routes.
The global freighter fleet is expected to grow by 70% in the 20-year forecast period, including demand for 85 new freighters in Europe.
Commercial aviation services market opportunities valued at nearly €1.6 trillion/£1.4 trillion
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